We’re taking a look back at the first half of 2013 to assess the state of the U.S. real estate market and what we find is that, according to the statistics, all signs are pointing towards continued recovery and growth.
As a matter of fact, by the third quarter of 2013, 90% of the cities in the U.S. have reported seeing a boost in real estate prices across the board.
For the first time in years the home building industry has reported enough growth to actually contribute to the economic growth in their regions. The biggest reason behind this newfound growth is the fact that multi-unit residential construction has expanded in hopes of filling the growing demand for more affordable dwellings.
This boost in demand stems from the fact that after the foreclosure crisis displaced thousands households and the downturn in the economy made it difficult for younger prospects to break into the purchase market. These factors have led to a stunting of the market given where the trends in population growth would have traditionally placed it.
You see in the last fifty years, households in the U.S. have grown an average of around 1.5% per year. But as of the year 2000, the average household growth rate has remained around 1.0%.
According to the NAHB, when this 1.0% trend is figured against the most recent Census household counts, we come up with an estimated deficit of 2.1 million households that have been delayed due to the financial crisis.
That translates into an estimated two million new households that are in the process of looking for space. As the fiscal environment continues to improve, it’s estimated that these young households will most likely be potential renters.
It’s this increase in demand and drop in vacancy rate that have the building industry moving forward with new multifamily construction.
Fortunately, the second quarter of 2013 saw the production of apartments and condominiums gain momentum. The industry posted its 11th consecutive quarter gain on the Multifamily Production Index post a 67; the highest number the industry has seen since the MPI’s launch.
As far as the NAHB Economics forecast is concerned, projects in the multifamily construction should see a robust increase in 2013. With multifamily construction start dates seeing an increase of an estimated 31% over the number of starts this time last year we have just over an estimated 335,000 new units in the works.
Between the obvious demands on the multifamily supply and the industry’s efforts to keep up, the first part of 2013 has set the scene for a strong finish to the year and excellent projections for 2014. In addition, according to NAHB estimates, as these projects roll out they will be adding new jobs in the construction segment at a rate of around 1,110 jobs for every 1,000 apartment units built.
How do you think the first part of 2013 measured up? Did it surpass your expectations or under deliver? What would you like to see out of the second half of 2013 for the multifamily apartment industry?