4.0

It's the grade-point average parents wish for their children. It's an earned-run average Major League pitchers strive to be under. And in the current apartment cycle, 4% represents an effective rent growth rate not seen in more than two years.

Until August.

Annualized effective rent growth for the United States apartment market was 4.1% in August 2014, the first time the rate surpassed the 4% barrier since May 2012. While not at the heady 5% levels of mid-2011, the national apartment market is four years into the sector's recovery from the Great Recession, and there hasn't been any notable deceleration in rent growth.

August's national growth is only 1 basis point (bps) lower than that May 2012 figure, also rounded to 4.1%. The last time effective rent growth could be rounded above that mark was in October 2011, when it reached 4.4%. 

The 4.1% effective rent growth recorded in August is a 29 bps increase from the 3.8% in July and an 89 bps rise from the 3.2% in August 2013.

YTD Rent Growth Still Best of Recovery

The July Market Trends Report dubbed 2014 as "The Year of the Apartment Market" because year-to-date (YTD) rent growth so far has been the strongest of any post-recession year. August's strong numbers indicate that the market appears to be gaining momentum.

YTD effective rent growth was 5.5% in August 2014, an increase of 40 bps from the 5.1% in July and 35 bps ahead of the 5.2% recorded in August 2011, the next strongest post-recession year. YTD rent growth has now surpassed the previous high point for any month of the recovery.

August is the sixth straight month in which 2014 has been considered strongest year for annualized effective rent growth during the recovery period.

 Whether 2014 ends up as the strongest post-recession year overall will depend on fourth-quarter performance. Axiometrics forecasts the rent growth rate to subside slightly during the last part of the year, but not below the mid-3% range on an annualized, monthly basis.

The strongest YTD rent growth of the recovery period for a full year was 4.6% in 2012.